Example Report

What actually drove your growth in 2026 so far

Year to date: January 2026 – August 2026

Net revenue
$9,253,379
January 2026 – August 2026
Ad spend
$2,508,613
across every paid channel
Evidence-supported
$4,668,888
50% of net revenue, paid + owned
Return on spend
1.86×
evidence-supported revenue per $1 spent
Which channels drove the year so far
ChannelConfidencePlatform creditedEvidence-supportedShare of creditMonths
MetaModerate$2,149,355$1,951,46791%8
Google Search (non-brand)Moderate$1,122,998$1,002,80889%8
Organic SearchLow$1,235,558$883,16971%8
EmailLow$1,033,509$213,00321%8
Google Performance MaxModerate$684,561$143,65421%8
DirectLow$903,320$129,36414%8
AffiliateLow$539,105$107,82120%8
TikTokModerate$392,276$90,43123%8
SMSLow$270,343$67,65225%8
Google Search (brand)Moderate$1,566,758$52,3373%8
Meta (retargeting)Moderate$1,359,054$27,1812%8

Each channel's confidence is its weakest month of the year.

Month by month — open any month for the report it produced
▸January 2026$1,028,407 net→$517,352 supported
Net revenue
$1,028,407
January 2026
Baseline demand
50%
revenue not driven by paid/owned
Paid + owned, evidence-supported
50%
$517,352 of $1,028,407
Baseline demand$511,054
+
Evidence-supported$517,352
=
Net revenue$1,028,407
Per-channel verdicts — credited vs. evidence-supported
ChannelPlatform creditedEvidence-supportedConfidence
Meta$231,211$211,796Moderate
Google Search (non-brand)$122,522$109,123Moderate
Organic Search$141,145$101,801Low
Email$117,639$24,245Low
Direct$103,938$19,201Low
Google Performance Max$72,033$13,100Moderate
Affiliate$59,947prior est.Insufficient evidence
TikTok$36,931$8,845Moderate
SMS$29,788$7,454Low
Google Search (brand)$175,013$6,580Moderate
Meta (retargeting)$160,901$3,218Moderate
▸MetaModeratecredited $231,211→supported $211,796

Evidence supports $211,796 of the $231,211 Meta claims — about 92%. It mostly created new demand.

Range: $157,788 – $265,803 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 92%the channel created or captured demand
  • 8%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (18%) matches independent traffic share (20%) — corroborated
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 66% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.0x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
    • Gains 21% of credit under data-driven vs last-click — last-click was under-crediting an introducer
  • new-vs-returning mix — 60% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.57) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
  • your store's own order attribution — 61% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 33% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics), new-vs-returning mix, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution, the ad platform's own pixel.

Campaigns in this channel 7
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Broad Prospecting - Video$36,480$94,79772,276
Lookalike 1% Purchasers$21,354$55,49142,308
Advantage+ Shopping$16,905$43,93033,494
Interest Stack - Outdoors$8,008$20,80915,865
Creator Whitelist$3,559$9,2487,051
Reels Test$1,780$4,6243,526
Static Refresh$890$2,3121,763

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Google Search (non-brand)Moderatecredited $122,522→supported $109,123

Evidence supports $109,123 of the $122,522 Google Search (non-brand) claims — about 89%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $81,296 – $136,949 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 58% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 63% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.50) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Non-brand - Category$22,100$46,55840,422
Non-brand - Competitor$12,795$26,95523,402
Non-brand - Long Tail$11,050$23,27920,211
Non-brand - DSA$7,560$15,92813,829
Non-brand - Broad Test$4,653$9,8028,510

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Organic SearchLowcredited $141,145→supported $101,801

Evidence supports $101,801 of the $141,145 Organic Search claims — about 72%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $63,829 – $139,773 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 72%the channel created or captured demand
  • 28%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (11%) matches independent traffic share (20%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸EmailLowcredited $117,639→supported $24,245

Evidence supports $24,245 of the $117,639 Email claims — about 21%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $14,450 – $34,040 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 79%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 21%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸DirectLowcredited $103,938→supported $19,201

Evidence supports $19,201 of the $103,938 Direct claims — about 18%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $11,444 – $26,958 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 82%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 18%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (8%) matches independent traffic share (15%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Performance MaxModeratecredited $72,033→supported $13,100

Evidence supports $13,100 of the $72,033 Google Performance Max claims — about 18%. It mostly drove demand.

Range: $9,616 – $16,585 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 82%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 18%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 40% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 72,033 but the store's own order attribution credits 46,101 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
PMax - All Products$22,910$45,38121,684
PMax - New Arrivals$9,455$18,7298,949
PMax - Clearance$4,000$7,9243,786

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸AffiliateInsufficient evidencecredited $59,947→supported prior est.

Nothing independent reached Affiliate this month, so its $59,947 claim stands unchecked. Treat it as the platform's figure, not a verdict.

Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 80%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 20%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Nothing above settles it: the observations came from the platform itself, or they pointed both ways and cancelled out.

▸TikTokModeratecredited $36,931→supported $8,845

Your sources disagree about TikTok. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $5,546 – $12,144 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 76%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 24%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 70% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 77% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.4x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
  • your store's own order attribution — 72% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 59% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 53% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Revenue per session $0.42 is well below the site average — low-quality / poorly-converting traffic
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 36,931 but the store's own order attribution credits 14,403 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Spark Ads - Creator A$7,387$12,55711,562
TopFeed - Broad$6,301$10,7109,862
Spark Ads - Creator B$4,563$7,7567,141
Product Demo$2,390$4,0623,741
Hashtag Test$1,086$1,8471,700

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸SMSLowcredited $29,788→supported $7,454

Evidence supports $7,454 of the $29,788 SMS claims — about 25%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $4,443 – $10,466 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 75%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 25%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Search (brand)Moderatecredited $175,013→supported $6,580

Evidence supports $6,580 of the $175,013 Google Search (brand) claims — about 4%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $4,902 – $8,258 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 96%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 4%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — Brand search harvests existing demand (product of other channels); structurally low incrementality
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 92% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • your store's own order attribution — Only 18% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Brand - Exact$15,446$126,00957,259
Brand - Phrase$4,505$36,75316,701
Brand + Category$1,502$12,2515,567

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Meta (retargeting)Moderatecredited $160,901→supported $3,218

Evidence supports $3,218 of the $160,901 Meta (retargeting) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $2,397 – $4,039 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 51% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 47% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Sits in the final touch of 89% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • your store's own order attribution
    • Platform claims 160,901 but the store's own order attribution credits 77,232 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split
    • Only 14% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 4
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
RT - 30d ATC$17,537$74,01431,140
RT - Site Visitors 14d$11,818$49,87920,985
RT - Email Openers$5,719$24,13510,154
RT - Catalogue DPA$3,050$12,8725,416

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

What to do about it
Spending guardrails: partly unverified

Your data does not yet show CAC payback, Contribution margin, Platform ROAS, so nothing below has been checked against them. Read every recommendation as conditional on those holding.

Email (Klaviyo)Test it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
DirectTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Performance Max / ShoppingTest it

Evidence says it moved the number.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
AffiliateTest it

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
TikTokTest it

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Brand SearchTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — RetargetingTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — ProspectingLean in

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Non-brand SearchLean in

Evidence says this captured demand it helped shape.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Organic SearchHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
SMSHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Two things would sharpen next month
  • a post-purchase survey, so every order carries where the buyer says it came from
  • one holdout or geo test, the only evidence that lifts a read above Moderate
▸February 2026$960,964 net→$505,806 supported
Net revenue
$960,964
February 2026
Baseline demand
47%
revenue not driven by paid/owned
Paid + owned, evidence-supported
53%
$505,806 of $960,964
Baseline demand$455,158
+
Evidence-supported$505,806
=
Net revenue$960,964
Per-channel verdicts — credited vs. evidence-supported
ChannelPlatform creditedEvidence-supportedConfidence
Meta$224,607$205,746Moderate
Google Search (non-brand)$118,691$108,331Moderate
Organic Search$138,590$99,958Low
Email$115,625$23,830Low
Direct$101,853$18,816Low
Google Performance Max$70,384$12,800Moderate
Affiliate$58,152prior est.Insufficient evidence
TikTok$36,858$8,827Moderate
SMS$29,540$7,392Low
Google Search (brand)$169,354$6,368Moderate
Meta (retargeting)$105,371$2,107Moderate
▸MetaModeratecredited $224,607→supported $205,746

Evidence supports $205,746 of the $224,607 Meta claims — about 92%. It mostly created new demand.

Range: $153,281 – $258,211 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 92%the channel created or captured demand
  • 8%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (19%) matches independent traffic share (21%) — corroborated
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 66% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.0x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
    • Gains 22% of credit under data-driven vs last-click — last-click was under-crediting an introducer
  • new-vs-returning mix — 59% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.58) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
  • your store's own order attribution — 61% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 32% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics), new-vs-returning mix, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution, the ad platform's own pixel.

Campaigns in this channel 6
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Broad Prospecting - Video$36,096$92,08971,814
Lookalike 1% Purchasers$21,129$53,90642,038
Advantage+ Shopping$16,727$42,67533,280
Interest Stack - Outdoors$7,923$20,21515,764
Creator Whitelist$3,522$8,9847,006
2 smaller campaigns$2,641$6,7385,255

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Google Search (non-brand)Moderatecredited $118,691→supported $108,331

Evidence supports $108,331 of the $118,691 Google Search (non-brand) claims — about 91%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $80,707 – $135,956 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 91%the channel created or captured demand
  • 9%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 57% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
    • GA4 shows 63% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.51) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Non-brand - Category$21,738$45,10239,927
Non-brand - Competitor$12,585$26,11223,116
Non-brand - Long Tail$10,869$22,55119,964
Non-brand - DSA$7,437$15,43013,659
Non-brand - Broad Test$4,576$9,4958,406

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Organic SearchLowcredited $138,590→supported $99,958

Evidence supports $99,958 of the $138,590 Organic Search claims — about 72%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $62,674 – $137,242 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 72%the channel created or captured demand
  • 28%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (12%) matches independent traffic share (21%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸EmailLowcredited $115,625→supported $23,830

Evidence supports $23,830 of the $115,625 Email claims — about 21%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $14,203 – $33,457 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 79%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 21%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸DirectLowcredited $101,853→supported $18,816

Evidence supports $18,816 of the $101,853 Direct claims — about 18%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $11,214 – $26,417 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 82%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 18%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (9%) matches independent traffic share (16%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Performance MaxModeratecredited $70,384→supported $12,800

Evidence supports $12,800 of the $70,384 Google Performance Max claims — about 18%. It mostly drove demand.

Range: $9,395 – $16,205 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 82%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 18%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 40% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 70,384 but the store's own order attribution credits 45,046 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
PMax - All Products$22,914$44,34221,779
PMax - New Arrivals$9,457$18,3008,988
PMax - Clearance$4,001$7,7423,803

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸AffiliateInsufficient evidencecredited $58,152→supported prior est.

Nothing independent reached Affiliate this month, so its $58,152 claim stands unchecked. Treat it as the platform's figure, not a verdict.

Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 80%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 20%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Nothing above settles it: the observations came from the platform itself, or they pointed both ways and cancelled out.

▸TikTokModeratecredited $36,858→supported $8,827

Your sources disagree about TikTok. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $5,535 – $12,120 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 76%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 24%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 70% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 77% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.4x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
  • your store's own order attribution — 72% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 59% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 53% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Revenue per session $0.42 is well below the site average — low-quality / poorly-converting traffic
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 36,858 but the store's own order attribution credits 14,375 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Spark Ads - Creator A$7,604$12,53211,951
TopFeed - Broad$6,486$10,68910,194
Spark Ads - Creator B$4,697$7,7407,382
Product Demo$2,460$4,0543,867
Hashtag Test$1,118$1,8431,758

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸SMSLowcredited $29,540→supported $7,392

Evidence supports $7,392 of the $29,540 SMS claims — about 25%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $4,406 – $10,379 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 75%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 25%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Search (brand)Moderatecredited $169,354→supported $6,368

Evidence supports $6,368 of the $169,354 Google Search (brand) claims — about 4%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $4,744 – $7,991 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 96%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 4%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — Brand search harvests existing demand (product of other channels); structurally low incrementality
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 92% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • your store's own order attribution — Only 18% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Brand - Exact$15,088$121,93556,166
Brand - Phrase$4,401$35,56416,382
Brand + Category$1,467$11,8555,461

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Meta (retargeting)Moderatecredited $105,371→supported $2,107

Evidence supports $2,107 of the $105,371 Meta (retargeting) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $1,570 – $2,645 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 50% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 46% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Sits in the final touch of 89% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • your store's own order attribution
    • Platform claims 105,371 but the store's own order attribution credits 50,578 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split
    • Only 14% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 4
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
RT - 30d ATC$8,083$48,47014,414
RT - Site Visitors 14d$5,448$32,6659,714
RT - Email Openers$2,636$15,8064,700
RT - Catalogue DPA$1,406$8,4302,507

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

What to do about it
Spending guardrails: partly unverified

Your data does not yet show CAC payback, Contribution margin, Platform ROAS, so nothing below has been checked against them. Read every recommendation as conditional on those holding.

Email (Klaviyo)Test it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
DirectTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Performance Max / ShoppingTest it

Evidence says it moved the number.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
AffiliateTest it

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
TikTokTest it

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Brand SearchTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — RetargetingTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — ProspectingLean in

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Non-brand SearchLean in

Evidence says this captured demand it helped shape.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Organic SearchHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
SMSHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Two things would sharpen next month
  • a post-purchase survey, so every order carries where the buyer says it came from
  • one holdout or geo test, the only evidence that lifts a read above Moderate
▸March 2026$1,124,514 net→$553,345 supported
Net revenue
$1,124,514
March 2026
Baseline demand
51%
revenue not driven by paid/owned
Paid + owned, evidence-supported
49%
$553,345 of $1,124,514
Baseline demand$571,169
+
Evidence-supported$553,345
=
Net revenue$1,124,514
Per-channel verdicts — credited vs. evidence-supported
ChannelPlatform creditedEvidence-supportedConfidence
Meta$257,796$237,346Moderate
Google Search (non-brand)$135,473$120,658Moderate
Organic Search$150,753$100,754Moderate
Email$125,897$25,947Low
Direct$110,571$20,426Low
Affiliate$65,444prior est.Insufficient evidence
Google Performance Max$81,309$9,660Moderate
SMS$32,452$8,121Low
TikTok$44,443$7,127Moderate
Google Search (brand)$190,657$6,753Moderate
Meta (retargeting)$173,188$3,464Moderate
▸MetaModeratecredited $257,796→supported $237,346

Evidence supports $237,346 of the $257,796 Meta claims — about 92%. It mostly created new demand.

Range: $176,823 – $297,870 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 92%the channel created or captured demand
  • 8%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (19%) matches independent traffic share (20%) — corroborated
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 66% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 1.9x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
    • Gains 23% of credit under data-driven vs last-click — last-click was under-crediting an introducer
  • new-vs-returning mix — 59% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.58) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
  • your store's own order attribution — 61% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
  • Search Console — MIL-01: paid_social_prospecting + (M1_halo)
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 32% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics), new-vs-returning mix, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution, Search Console, the ad platform's own pixel.

Campaigns in this channel 7
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Broad Prospecting - Video$40,302$105,69679,050
Lookalike 1% Purchasers$23,592$61,87146,273
Advantage+ Shopping$18,677$48,98136,633
Interest Stack - Outdoors$8,847$23,20217,352
Creator Whitelist$3,932$10,3127,712
Reels Test$1,966$5,1563,856
Static Refresh$983$2,5781,928

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Google Search (non-brand)Moderatecredited $135,473→supported $120,658

Evidence supports $120,658 of the $135,473 Google Search (non-brand) claims — about 89%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $89,890 – $151,426 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 56% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 63% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.52) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Non-brand - Category$24,128$51,48043,691
Non-brand - Competitor$13,969$29,80425,295
Non-brand - Long Tail$12,064$25,74021,845
Non-brand - DSA$8,254$17,61214,947
Non-brand - Broad Test$5,080$10,8389,198

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Organic SearchModeratecredited $150,753→supported $100,754

Your sources disagree about Organic Search. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $61,561 – $139,947 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 67%the channel created or captured demand
  • 33%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (11%) matches independent traffic share (20%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • Search Console — MIL-13: organic_search_seo - standalone (M4_substitution)

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics), Search Console.

▸EmailLowcredited $125,897→supported $25,947

Evidence supports $25,947 of the $125,897 Email claims — about 21%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $15,464 – $36,430 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 79%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 21%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸DirectLowcredited $110,571→supported $20,426

Evidence supports $20,426 of the $110,571 Direct claims — about 18%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $12,174 – $28,678 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 82%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 18%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (8%) matches independent traffic share (15%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸AffiliateInsufficient evidencecredited $65,444→supported prior est.

Nothing independent reached Affiliate this month, so its $65,444 claim stands unchecked. Treat it as the platform's figure, not a verdict.

Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 80%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 20%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Nothing above settles it: the observations came from the platform itself, or they pointed both ways and cancelled out.

▸Google Performance MaxModeratecredited $81,309→supported $9,660

Evidence supports $9,660 of the $81,309 Google Performance Max claims — about 12%. It mostly drove demand.

Range: $7,197 – $12,123 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 88%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 12%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • blended efficiency (top-line MER) — Channel claims +16% but blended MER is flat — growth not visible in the top line
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 40% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 81,309 but the store's own order attribution credits 52,038 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: blended efficiency (top-line MER), the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
PMax - All Products$25,861$51,22424,233
PMax - New Arrivals$10,673$21,14010,001
PMax - Clearance$4,515$8,9444,231

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸SMSLowcredited $32,452→supported $8,121

Evidence supports $8,121 of the $32,452 SMS claims — about 25%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $4,840 – $11,402 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 75%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 25%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸TikTokModeratecredited $44,443→supported $7,127

Your sources disagree about TikTok. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $4,583 – $9,672 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 84%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 16%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 72% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 77% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.3x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
  • your store's own order attribution — 72% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 61% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 55% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • blended efficiency (top-line MER) — Channel claims +21% but blended MER is flat — growth not visible in the top line
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Revenue per session $0.42 is well below the site average — low-quality / poorly-converting traffic
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 44,443 but the store's own order attribution credits 17,333 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, the ad platform's own pixel, blended efficiency (top-line MER), GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Spark Ads - Creator A$8,833$15,11013,686
TopFeed - Broad$7,534$12,88811,673
Spark Ads - Creator B$5,456$9,3338,453
Product Demo$2,858$4,8894,428
Hashtag Test$1,299$2,2222,013

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Google Search (brand)Moderatecredited $190,657→supported $6,753

Evidence supports $6,753 of the $190,657 Google Search (brand) claims — about 4%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $5,031 – $8,475 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 96%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 4%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — Brand search harvests existing demand (product of other channels); structurally low incrementality
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 92% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • your store's own order attribution — Only 18% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring
  • Search Console — MIL-01: branded_search - standalone (M1_halo)

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution, Search Console.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Brand - Exact$16,631$137,27361,035
Brand - Phrase$4,851$40,03817,802
Brand + Category$1,617$13,3465,934

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Meta (retargeting)Moderatecredited $173,188→supported $3,464

Evidence supports $3,464 of the $173,188 Meta (retargeting) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $2,580 – $4,347 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 50% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • Spend +126% MoM but marginal ROAS falling — incremental return decaying at the margin
    • 46% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • blended efficiency (top-line MER) — Channel claims +64% but blended MER is flat — growth not visible in the top line
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Sits in the final touch of 89% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • your store's own order attribution
    • Platform claims 173,188 but the store's own order attribution credits 83,130 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split
    • Only 14% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, blended efficiency (top-line MER), GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 4
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
RT - 30d ATC$18,248$79,66632,079
RT - Site Visitors 14d$12,298$53,68821,618
RT - Email Openers$5,951$25,97810,460
RT - Catalogue DPA$3,174$13,8555,579

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

What to do about it
Spending guardrails: partly unverified

Your data does not yet show CAC payback, Contribution margin, Platform ROAS, so nothing below has been checked against them. Read every recommendation as conditional on those holding.

Email (Klaviyo)Test it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
DirectTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
AffiliateTest it

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Performance Max / ShoppingTest it

Evidence says it moved the number.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
TikTokTest it

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Brand SearchTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — RetargetingTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — ProspectingLean in

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Non-brand SearchLean in

Evidence says this captured demand it helped shape.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Organic SearchHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
SMSHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Two things would sharpen next month
  • a post-purchase survey, so every order carries where the buyer says it came from
  • one holdout or geo test, the only evidence that lifts a read above Moderate
▸April 2026$1,182,539 net→$593,098 supported
Net revenue
$1,182,539
April 2026
Baseline demand
50%
revenue not driven by paid/owned
Paid + owned, evidence-supported
50%
$593,098 of $1,182,539
Baseline demand$589,441
+
Evidence-supported$593,098
=
Net revenue$1,182,539
Per-channel verdicts — credited vs. evidence-supported
ChannelPlatform creditedEvidence-supportedConfidence
Meta$273,860$250,863Moderate
Google Search (non-brand)$143,330$127,656Moderate
Organic Search$156,448$112,838Low
Email$130,783$26,954Low
Google Performance Max$86,898$15,804Moderate
Direct$114,520$13,837Low
Affiliate$68,765prior est.Insufficient evidence
TikTok$49,023$11,741Moderate
SMS$34,013$8,512Low
Google Search (brand)$200,139$7,525Moderate
Meta (retargeting)$180,793$3,616Moderate
▸MetaModeratecredited $273,860→supported $250,863

Evidence supports $250,863 of the $273,860 Meta claims — about 92%. It mostly created new demand.

Range: $186,893 – $314,833 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 92%the channel created or captured demand
  • 8%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (19%) matches independent traffic share (20%) — corroborated
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 66% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 1.9x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
    • Gains 24% of credit under data-driven vs last-click — last-click was under-crediting an introducer
  • new-vs-returning mix — 59% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.58) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
  • your store's own order attribution — 61% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 32% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics), new-vs-returning mix, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution, the ad platform's own pixel.

Campaigns in this channel 7
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Broad Prospecting - Video$42,569$112,28383,015
Lookalike 1% Purchasers$24,919$65,72648,594
Advantage+ Shopping$19,727$52,03338,471
Interest Stack - Outdoors$9,344$24,64718,223
Creator Whitelist$4,153$10,9548,099
Reels Test$2,077$5,4774,050
Static Refresh$1,038$2,7392,025

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Google Search (non-brand)Moderatecredited $143,330→supported $127,656

Evidence supports $127,656 of the $143,330 Google Search (non-brand) claims — about 89%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $95,104 – $160,208 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 56% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 63% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.52) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Non-brand - Category$25,335$54,46645,612
Non-brand - Competitor$14,668$31,53326,407
Non-brand - Long Tail$12,668$27,23322,806
Non-brand - DSA$8,667$18,63315,604
Non-brand - Broad Test$5,334$11,4669,602

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Organic SearchLowcredited $156,448→supported $112,838

Evidence supports $112,838 of the $156,448 Organic Search claims — about 72%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $70,749 – $154,926 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 72%the channel created or captured demand
  • 28%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (11%) matches independent traffic share (20%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸EmailLowcredited $130,783→supported $26,954

Evidence supports $26,954 of the $130,783 Email claims — about 21%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $16,065 – $37,843 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 79%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 21%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Performance MaxModeratecredited $86,898→supported $15,804

Evidence supports $15,804 of the $86,898 Google Performance Max claims — about 18%. It mostly drove demand.

Range: $11,600 – $20,007 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 82%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 18%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 39% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 86,898 but the store's own order attribution credits 55,614 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
PMax - All Products$27,611$54,74525,724
PMax - New Arrivals$11,395$22,59310,616
PMax - Clearance$4,821$9,5594,491

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸DirectLowcredited $114,520→supported $13,837

Evidence supports $13,837 of the $114,520 Direct claims — about 12%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $8,247 – $19,428 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 88%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 12%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸AffiliateInsufficient evidencecredited $68,765→supported prior est.

Nothing independent reached Affiliate this month, so its $68,765 claim stands unchecked. Treat it as the platform's figure, not a verdict.

Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 80%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 20%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Nothing above settles it: the observations came from the platform itself, or they pointed both ways and cancelled out.

▸TikTokModeratecredited $49,023→supported $11,741

Your sources disagree about TikTok. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $7,361 – $16,120 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 76%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 24%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 73% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 77% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.3x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
  • your store's own order attribution — 72% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 62% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 56% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Revenue per session $0.42 is well below the site average — low-quality / poorly-converting traffic
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 49,023 but the store's own order attribution credits 19,119 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Spark Ads - Creator A$9,706$16,66814,952
TopFeed - Broad$8,279$14,21712,753
Spark Ads - Creator B$5,995$10,2959,235
Product Demo$3,140$5,3934,837
Hashtag Test$1,427$2,4512,199

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸SMSLowcredited $34,013→supported $8,512

Evidence supports $8,512 of the $34,013 SMS claims — about 25%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $5,073 – $11,950 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 75%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 25%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Search (brand)Moderatecredited $200,139→supported $7,525

Evidence supports $7,525 of the $200,139 Google Search (brand) claims — about 4%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $5,606 – $9,444 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 96%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 4%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — Brand search harvests existing demand (product of other channels); structurally low incrementality
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 92% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • your store's own order attribution — Only 18% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Brand - Exact$17,341$144,10063,277
Brand - Phrase$5,058$42,02918,456
Brand + Category$1,686$14,0106,152

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Meta (retargeting)Moderatecredited $180,793→supported $3,616

Evidence supports $3,616 of the $180,793 Meta (retargeting) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $2,694 – $4,538 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 50% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 46% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Sits in the final touch of 89% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • your store's own order attribution
    • Platform claims 180,793 but the store's own order attribution credits 86,781 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split
    • Only 14% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 4
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
RT - 30d ATC$18,706$83,16532,694
RT - Site Visitors 14d$12,606$56,04622,033
RT - Email Openers$6,100$27,11910,661
RT - Catalogue DPA$3,253$14,4635,686

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

What to do about it
Spending guardrails: partly unverified

Your data does not yet show CAC payback, Contribution margin, Platform ROAS, so nothing below has been checked against them. Read every recommendation as conditional on those holding.

Email (Klaviyo)Test it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Performance Max / ShoppingTest it

Evidence says it moved the number.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
DirectTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
AffiliateTest it

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
TikTokTest it

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Brand SearchTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — RetargetingTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — ProspectingLean in

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Non-brand SearchLean in

Evidence says this captured demand it helped shape.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Organic SearchHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
SMSHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Two things would sharpen next month
  • a post-purchase survey, so every order carries where the buyer says it came from
  • one holdout or geo test, the only evidence that lifts a read above Moderate
▸May 2026$1,241,691 net→$621,726 supported
Net revenue
$1,241,691
May 2026
Baseline demand
50%
revenue not driven by paid/owned
Paid + owned, evidence-supported
50%
$621,726 of $1,241,691
Baseline demand$619,965
+
Evidence-supported$621,726
=
Net revenue$1,241,691
Per-channel verdicts — credited vs. evidence-supported
ChannelPlatform creditedEvidence-supportedConfidence
Meta$290,312$265,933Moderate
Google Search (non-brand)$151,351$134,799Moderate
Organic Search$162,195$116,983Low
Email$135,722$27,972Low
Google Performance Max$92,664$16,852Moderate
Affiliate$72,133prior est.Insufficient evidence
Direct$118,490$14,317Low
TikTok$53,893$12,907Moderate
SMS$35,613$8,912Low
Google Search (brand)$209,730$4,855Moderate
Meta (retargeting)$188,427$3,769Moderate
▸MetaModeratecredited $290,312→supported $265,933

Evidence supports $265,933 of the $290,312 Meta claims — about 92%. It mostly created new demand.

Range: $198,120 – $333,747 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 92%the channel created or captured demand
  • 8%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (19%) matches independent traffic share (21%) — corroborated
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 66% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 1.8x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
    • Gains 24% of credit under data-driven vs last-click — last-click was under-crediting an introducer
  • new-vs-returning mix — 61% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.57) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
  • your store's own order attribution — 61% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 34% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics), new-vs-returning mix, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution, the ad platform's own pixel.

Campaigns in this channel 7
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Broad Prospecting - Video$44,911$119,02887,093
Lookalike 1% Purchasers$26,289$69,67550,981
Advantage+ Shopping$20,812$55,15940,360
Interest Stack - Outdoors$9,858$26,12819,118
Creator Whitelist$4,382$11,6128,497
Reels Test$2,191$5,8064,248
Static Refresh$1,095$2,9032,124

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Google Search (non-brand)Moderatecredited $151,351→supported $134,799

Evidence supports $134,799 of the $151,351 Google Search (non-brand) claims — about 89%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $100,425 – $169,173 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 56% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 63% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.52) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Non-brand - Category$26,571$57,51347,570
Non-brand - Competitor$15,383$33,29727,540
Non-brand - Long Tail$13,286$28,75723,785
Non-brand - DSA$9,090$19,67616,274
Non-brand - Broad Test$5,594$12,10810,015

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Organic SearchLowcredited $162,195→supported $116,983

Evidence supports $116,983 of the $162,195 Organic Search claims — about 72%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $73,348 – $160,618 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 72%the channel created or captured demand
  • 28%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (11%) matches independent traffic share (20%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸EmailLowcredited $135,722→supported $27,972

Evidence supports $27,972 of the $135,722 Email claims — about 21%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $16,671 – $39,273 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 79%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 21%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Performance MaxModeratecredited $92,664→supported $16,852

Evidence supports $16,852 of the $92,664 Google Performance Max claims — about 18%. It mostly drove demand.

Range: $12,370 – $21,335 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 82%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 18%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 37% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 92,664 but the store's own order attribution credits 59,305 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
PMax - All Products$29,445$58,37927,279
PMax - New Arrivals$12,152$24,09311,258
PMax - Clearance$5,141$10,1934,763

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸AffiliateInsufficient evidencecredited $72,133→supported prior est.

Nothing independent reached Affiliate this month, so its $72,133 claim stands unchecked. Treat it as the platform's figure, not a verdict.

Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 80%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 20%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Nothing above settles it: the observations came from the platform itself, or they pointed both ways and cancelled out.

▸DirectLowcredited $118,490→supported $14,317

Evidence supports $14,317 of the $118,490 Direct claims — about 12%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $8,533 – $20,101 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 88%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 12%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸TikTokModeratecredited $53,893→supported $12,907

Your sources disagree about TikTok. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $8,093 – $17,721 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 76%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 24%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 74% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 77% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.3x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
  • your store's own order attribution — 72% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 63% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 57% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Revenue per session $0.42 is well below the site average — low-quality / poorly-converting traffic
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 53,893 but the store's own order attribution credits 21,018 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Spark Ads - Creator A$10,653$18,32416,318
TopFeed - Broad$9,086$15,62913,919
Spark Ads - Creator B$6,580$11,31710,079
Product Demo$3,446$5,9285,279
Hashtag Test$1,567$2,6952,400

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸SMSLowcredited $35,613→supported $8,912

Evidence supports $8,912 of the $35,613 SMS claims — about 25%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $5,312 – $12,513 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 75%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 25%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Search (brand)Moderatecredited $209,730→supported $4,855

Evidence supports $4,855 of the $209,730 Google Search (brand) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $3,617 – $6,093 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — Brand search harvests existing demand (product of other channels); structurally low incrementality
  • Search Console — Branded-search demand up (116 idx) — brand clicks are capturing demand created upstream, not creating it
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 92% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • your store's own order attribution — Only 18% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, Search Console, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Brand - Exact$18,061$151,00665,537
Brand - Phrase$5,268$44,04319,115
Brand + Category$1,756$14,6816,372

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Meta (retargeting)Moderatecredited $188,427→supported $3,769

Evidence supports $3,769 of the $188,427 Meta (retargeting) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $2,808 – $4,730 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 52% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 48% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Sits in the final touch of 89% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • your store's own order attribution
    • Platform claims 188,427 but the store's own order attribution credits 90,445 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split
    • Only 14% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 4
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
RT - 30d ATC$19,153$86,67733,288
RT - Site Visitors 14d$12,907$58,41222,433
RT - Email Openers$6,246$28,26410,855
RT - Catalogue DPA$3,331$15,0745,789

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

What to do about it
Spending guardrails: partly unverified

Your data does not yet show CAC payback, Contribution margin, Platform ROAS, so nothing below has been checked against them. Read every recommendation as conditional on those holding.

Email (Klaviyo)Test it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Performance Max / ShoppingTest it

Evidence says it moved the number.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
AffiliateTest it

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
DirectTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
TikTokTest it

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Brand SearchTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — RetargetingTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — ProspectingLean in

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Non-brand SearchLean in

Evidence says this captured demand it helped shape.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Organic SearchHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
SMSHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Two things would sharpen next month
  • a post-purchase survey, so every order carries where the buyer says it came from
  • one holdout or geo test, the only evidence that lifts a read above Moderate
▸June 2026$1,284,184 net→$646,638 supported
Net revenue
$1,284,184
June 2026
Baseline demand
50%
revenue not driven by paid/owned
Paid + owned, evidence-supported
50%
$646,638 of $1,284,184
Baseline demand$637,546
+
Evidence-supported$646,638
=
Net revenue$1,284,184
Per-channel verdicts — credited vs. evidence-supported
ChannelPlatform creditedEvidence-supportedConfidence
Meta$302,335$270,495Moderate
Google Search (non-brand)$157,062$139,886Moderate
Organic Search$166,333$119,967Low
Email$139,323$28,714Low
Google Performance Max$97,056$26,030Moderate
Affiliate$74,482prior est.Insufficient evidence
Direct$121,271$14,653Low
TikTok$58,018$13,895Moderate
SMS$36,885$9,230Low
Google Search (brand)$216,291$5,007Moderate
Meta (retargeting)$193,168$3,863Moderate
▸MetaModeratecredited $302,335→supported $270,495

Evidence supports $270,495 of the $302,335 Meta claims — about 89%. It mostly created new demand.

Range: $201,519 – $339,472 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (19%) matches independent traffic share (21%) — corroborated
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 66% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 1.8x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
    • Gains 24% of credit under data-driven vs last-click — last-click was under-crediting an introducer
  • new-vs-returning mix — 62% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.55) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
  • your store's own order attribution — 61% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 35% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 30% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics), new-vs-returning mix, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution, the ad platform's own pixel.

Campaigns in this channel 6
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Broad Prospecting - Video$46,776$123,95790,381
Lookalike 1% Purchasers$27,381$72,56052,906
Advantage+ Shopping$21,677$57,44441,884
Interest Stack - Outdoors$10,268$27,21019,840
Creator Whitelist$4,564$12,0938,818
2 smaller campaigns$3,423$9,0706,613

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Google Search (non-brand)Moderatecredited $157,062→supported $139,886

Evidence supports $139,886 of the $157,062 Google Search (non-brand) claims — about 89%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $104,215 – $175,557 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 58% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 63% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.51) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Non-brand - Category$27,511$59,68449,074
Non-brand - Competitor$15,928$34,55428,412
Non-brand - Long Tail$13,756$29,84224,537
Non-brand - DSA$9,412$20,41816,789
Non-brand - Broad Test$5,792$12,56510,331

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Organic SearchLowcredited $166,333→supported $119,967

Evidence supports $119,967 of the $166,333 Organic Search claims — about 72%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $75,220 – $164,715 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 72%the channel created or captured demand
  • 28%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (11%) matches independent traffic share (19%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸EmailLowcredited $139,323→supported $28,714

Evidence supports $28,714 of the $139,323 Email claims — about 21%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $17,114 – $40,315 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 79%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 21%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Performance MaxModeratecredited $97,056→supported $26,030

Your sources disagree about Google Performance Max. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $15,514 – $36,547 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 73%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 27%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.40) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 36% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 97,056 but the store's own order attribution credits 62,116 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: spend-to-revenue timing, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
PMax - All Products$31,000$61,14528,615
PMax - New Arrivals$12,794$25,23411,809
PMax - Clearance$5,413$10,6764,996

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸AffiliateInsufficient evidencecredited $74,482→supported prior est.

Nothing independent reached Affiliate this month, so its $74,482 claim stands unchecked. Treat it as the platform's figure, not a verdict.

Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 80%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 20%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Nothing above settles it: the observations came from the platform itself, or they pointed both ways and cancelled out.

▸DirectLowcredited $121,271→supported $14,653

Evidence supports $14,653 of the $121,271 Direct claims — about 12%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $8,733 – $20,573 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 88%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 12%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸TikTokModeratecredited $58,018→supported $13,895

Your sources disagree about TikTok. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $8,712 – $19,078 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 76%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 24%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 75% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 77% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.4x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
  • your store's own order attribution — 72% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 64% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 58% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Revenue per session $0.42 is well below the site average — low-quality / poorly-converting traffic
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 58,018 but the store's own order attribution credits 22,627 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Spark Ads - Creator A$11,542$19,72617,617
TopFeed - Broad$9,845$16,82515,026
Spark Ads - Creator B$7,129$12,18410,881
Product Demo$3,734$6,3825,700
Hashtag Test$1,697$2,9012,591

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸SMSLowcredited $36,885→supported $9,230

Evidence supports $9,230 of the $36,885 SMS claims — about 25%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $5,501 – $12,959 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 75%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 25%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Search (brand)Moderatecredited $216,291→supported $5,007

Evidence supports $5,007 of the $216,291 Google Search (brand) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $3,730 – $6,283 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — Brand search harvests existing demand (product of other channels); structurally low incrementality
  • Search Console — Branded-search demand up (118 idx) — brand clicks are capturing demand created upstream, not creating it
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 92% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • your store's own order attribution — Only 18% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, Search Console, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Brand - Exact$18,571$155,73067,142
Brand - Phrase$5,417$45,42119,583
Brand + Category$1,806$15,1406,528

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Meta (retargeting)Moderatecredited $193,168→supported $3,863

Evidence supports $3,863 of the $193,168 Meta (retargeting) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $2,878 – $4,849 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 53% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 49% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Sits in the final touch of 89% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • your store's own order attribution
    • Platform claims 193,168 but the store's own order attribution credits 92,721 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split
    • Only 14% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 4
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
RT - 30d ATC$19,360$88,85733,526
RT - Site Visitors 14d$13,047$59,88222,594
RT - Email Openers$6,313$28,97510,932
RT - Catalogue DPA$3,367$15,4535,831

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

What to do about it
Spending guardrails: partly unverified

Your data does not yet show CAC payback, Contribution margin, Platform ROAS, so nothing below has been checked against them. Read every recommendation as conditional on those holding.

Email (Klaviyo)Test it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
AffiliateTest it

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
DirectTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
TikTokTest it

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Brand SearchTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — RetargetingTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — ProspectingLean in

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Non-brand SearchLean in

Evidence says this captured demand it helped shape.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Organic SearchHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Google — Performance Max / ShoppingHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
SMSHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Two things would sharpen next month
  • a post-purchase survey, so every order carries where the buyer says it came from
  • one holdout or geo test, the only evidence that lifts a read above Moderate
▸July 2026$1,185,601 net→$599,341 supported
Net revenue
$1,185,601
July 2026
Baseline demand
49%
revenue not driven by paid/owned
Paid + owned, evidence-supported
51%
$599,341 of $1,185,601
Baseline demand$586,259
+
Evidence-supported$599,341
=
Net revenue$1,185,601
Per-channel verdicts — credited vs. evidence-supported
ChannelPlatform creditedEvidence-supportedConfidence
Meta$276,294$247,197Moderate
Google Search (non-brand)$143,249$127,583Moderate
Organic Search$157,134$113,333Low
Email$131,750$27,153Low
Google Performance Max$89,158$23,912Moderate
Direct$114,337$13,815Low
Affiliate$68,403prior est.Insufficient evidence
TikTok$53,940$12,918Moderate
SMS$35,192$8,807Low
Google Search (brand)$197,993$7,445Moderate
Meta (retargeting)$174,846$3,497Moderate
▸MetaModeratecredited $276,294→supported $247,197

Evidence supports $247,197 of the $276,294 Meta claims — about 89%. It mostly created new demand.

Range: $184,162 – $310,233 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (19%) matches independent traffic share (21%) — corroborated
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 66% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 1.9x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
    • Gains 23% of credit under data-driven vs last-click — last-click was under-crediting an introducer
  • new-vs-returning mix — 63% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.54) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
  • your store's own order attribution — 61% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 36% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 31% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics), new-vs-returning mix, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution, the ad platform's own pixel.

Campaigns in this channel 7
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Broad Prospecting - Video$44,222$113,28186,402
Lookalike 1% Purchasers$25,886$66,31150,577
Advantage+ Shopping$20,493$52,49640,040
Interest Stack - Outdoors$9,707$24,86618,966
Creator Whitelist$4,314$11,0528,429
Reels Test$2,157$5,5264,215
Static Refresh$1,079$2,7632,107

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Google Search (non-brand)Moderatecredited $143,249→supported $127,583

Evidence supports $127,583 of the $143,249 Google Search (non-brand) claims — about 89%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $95,050 – $160,117 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 59% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 63% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.49) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Non-brand - Category$25,856$54,43546,637
Non-brand - Competitor$14,969$31,51527,001
Non-brand - Long Tail$12,928$27,21723,319
Non-brand - DSA$8,845$18,62215,955
Non-brand - Broad Test$5,443$11,4609,818

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Organic SearchLowcredited $157,134→supported $113,333

Evidence supports $113,333 of the $157,134 Organic Search claims — about 72%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $71,060 – $155,606 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 72%the channel created or captured demand
  • 28%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (11%) matches independent traffic share (19%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸EmailLowcredited $131,750→supported $27,153

Evidence supports $27,153 of the $131,750 Email claims — about 21%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $16,183 – $38,123 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 79%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 21%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Performance MaxModeratecredited $89,158→supported $23,912

Your sources disagree about Google Performance Max. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $14,252 – $33,573 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 73%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 27%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.41) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 35% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 89,158 but the store's own order attribution credits 57,061 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: spend-to-revenue timing, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
PMax - All Products$29,624$56,16927,651
PMax - New Arrivals$12,226$23,18111,412
PMax - Clearance$5,172$9,8074,828

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸DirectLowcredited $114,337→supported $13,815

Evidence supports $13,815 of the $114,337 Direct claims — about 12%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $8,234 – $19,397 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 88%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 12%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸AffiliateInsufficient evidencecredited $68,403→supported prior est.

Nothing independent reached Affiliate this month, so its $68,403 claim stands unchecked. Treat it as the platform's figure, not a verdict.

Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 80%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 20%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Nothing above settles it: the observations came from the platform itself, or they pointed both ways and cancelled out.

▸TikTokModeratecredited $53,940→supported $12,918

Your sources disagree about TikTok. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $8,100 – $17,737 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 76%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 24%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 75% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 77% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.5x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
  • your store's own order attribution — 72% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 64% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 58% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Revenue per session $0.42 is well below the site average — low-quality / poorly-converting traffic
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 53,940 but the store's own order attribution credits 21,037 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Spark Ads - Creator A$11,352$18,34017,521
TopFeed - Broad$9,682$15,64314,944
Spark Ads - Creator B$7,011$11,32710,822
Product Demo$3,673$5,9335,668
Hashtag Test$1,669$2,6972,577

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸SMSLowcredited $35,192→supported $8,807

Evidence supports $8,807 of the $35,192 SMS claims — about 25%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $5,249 – $12,365 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 75%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 25%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Search (brand)Moderatecredited $197,993→supported $7,445

Evidence supports $7,445 of the $197,993 Google Search (brand) claims — about 4%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $5,546 – $9,343 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 96%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 4%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — Brand search harvests existing demand (product of other channels); structurally low incrementality
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 92% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • your store's own order attribution — Only 18% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Brand - Exact$17,333$142,55563,366
Brand - Phrase$5,055$41,57918,482
Brand + Category$1,685$13,8606,161

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Meta (retargeting)Moderatecredited $174,846→supported $3,497

Evidence supports $3,497 of the $174,846 Meta (retargeting) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $2,605 – $4,389 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 54% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 50% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Sits in the final touch of 89% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • your store's own order attribution
    • Platform claims 174,846 but the store's own order attribution credits 83,926 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split
    • Only 14% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 4
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
RT - 30d ATC$17,763$80,42931,105
RT - Site Visitors 14d$11,971$54,20220,962
RT - Email Openers$5,792$26,22710,143
RT - Catalogue DPA$3,089$13,9885,410

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

What to do about it
Spending guardrails: partly unverified

Your data does not yet show CAC payback, Contribution margin, Platform ROAS, so nothing below has been checked against them. Read every recommendation as conditional on those holding.

Email (Klaviyo)Test it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
DirectTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
AffiliateTest it

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
TikTokTest it

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Brand SearchTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — RetargetingTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — ProspectingLean in

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Non-brand SearchLean in

Evidence says this captured demand it helped shape.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Organic SearchHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Google — Performance Max / ShoppingHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
SMSHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Two things would sharpen next month
  • a post-purchase survey, so every order carries where the buyer says it came from
  • one holdout or geo test, the only evidence that lifts a read above Moderate
▸August 2026$1,245,480 net→$631,582 supported
Net revenue
$1,245,480
August 2026
Baseline demand
49%
revenue not driven by paid/owned
Paid + owned, evidence-supported
51%
$631,582 of $1,245,480
Baseline demand$613,898
+
Evidence-supported$631,582
=
Net revenue$1,245,480
Per-channel verdicts — credited vs. evidence-supported
ChannelPlatform creditedEvidence-supportedConfidence
Meta$292,940$262,090Moderate
Google Search (non-brand)$151,320$134,772Moderate
Organic Search$162,960$117,535Low
Email$136,770$28,188Low
Google Performance Max$95,060$25,495Moderate
Affiliate$71,780prior est.Insufficient evidence
Direct$118,340$14,299Low
TikTok$59,170$14,171Moderate
SMS$36,860$9,224Low
Google Search (brand)$207,580$7,805Moderate
Meta (retargeting)$182,360$3,647Moderate
▸MetaModeratecredited $292,940→supported $262,090

Evidence supports $262,090 of the $292,940 Meta claims — about 89%. It mostly created new demand.

Range: $195,257 – $328,923 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (19%) matches independent traffic share (21%) — corroborated
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 66% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 1.9x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
    • Gains 21% of credit under data-driven vs last-click — last-click was under-crediting an introducer
  • new-vs-returning mix — 64% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.53) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
  • your store's own order attribution — 61% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 37% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 32% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics), new-vs-returning mix, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution, the ad platform's own pixel.

Campaigns in this channel 6
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Broad Prospecting - Video$46,672$120,10590,676
Lookalike 1% Purchasers$27,320$70,30653,078
Advantage+ Shopping$21,628$55,65942,020
Interest Stack - Outdoors$10,245$26,36519,904
Creator Whitelist$4,553$11,7188,846
2 smaller campaigns$3,415$8,7886,635

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Google Search (non-brand)Moderatecredited $151,320→supported $134,772

Evidence supports $134,772 of the $151,320 Google Search (non-brand) claims — about 89%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $100,405 – $169,138 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 89%the channel created or captured demand
  • 11%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 60% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 63% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.48) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Non-brand - Category$27,127$57,50248,655
Non-brand - Competitor$15,705$33,29028,169
Non-brand - Long Tail$13,564$28,75124,328
Non-brand - DSA$9,280$19,67216,645
Non-brand - Broad Test$5,711$12,10610,243

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Organic SearchLowcredited $162,960→supported $117,535

Evidence supports $117,535 of the $162,960 Organic Search claims — about 72%. It mostly captured demand it helped shape.

Range: $73,694 – $161,375 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 72%the channel created or captured demand
  • 28%it harvested demand that was already coming

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “it harvested demand that was already coming”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Revenue share (11%) matches independent traffic share (19%) — corroborated
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸EmailLowcredited $136,770→supported $28,188

Evidence supports $28,188 of the $136,770 Email claims — about 21%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $16,800 – $39,576 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 79%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 21%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Performance MaxModeratecredited $95,060→supported $25,495

Your sources disagree about Google Performance Max. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $15,195 – $35,795 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 73%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 27%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Daily activity co-moves with NEW-customer orders (r=0.41) and leads them — corroborates genuine acquisition, not just reshuffled demand
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — 35% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 95,060 but the store's own order attribution credits 60,838 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: spend-to-revenue timing, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
PMax - All Products$31,603$59,88829,333
PMax - New Arrivals$13,043$24,71612,106
PMax - Clearance$5,518$10,4575,122

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸AffiliateInsufficient evidencecredited $71,780→supported prior est.

Nothing independent reached Affiliate this month, so its $71,780 claim stands unchecked. Treat it as the platform's figure, not a verdict.

Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 80%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 20%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Nothing above settles it: the observations came from the platform itself, or they pointed both ways and cancelled out.

▸DirectLowcredited $118,340→supported $14,299

Evidence supports $14,299 of the $118,340 Direct claims — about 12%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $8,522 – $20,076 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 88%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 12%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸TikTokModeratecredited $59,170→supported $14,171

Your sources disagree about TikTok. Some show real lift; others show it taking credit for demand that was already coming. Both readings are below.

Range: $8,885 – $19,456 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 76%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 24%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • new-vs-returning mix — 75% of its orders were first-time customers — corroborates genuine acquisition
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • GA4 shows 77% new users — corroborates genuine audience acquisition
    • Appears mostly as an early/introducer touch (assist:last-click 2.5x) — last-click under-credits it; consistent with demand creation
  • your store's own order attribution — 72% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are first-time customers — corroborates acquisition from the books, independent of any tracking estimate
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 64% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 58% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Revenue per session $0.42 is well below the site average — low-quality / poorly-converting traffic
  • your store's own order attribution — Platform claims 59,170 but the store's own order attribution credits 23,076 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split

Sources that checked this channel: new-vs-returning mix, the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 5
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Spark Ads - Creator A$12,464$20,11819,128
TopFeed - Broad$10,631$17,15916,315
Spark Ads - Creator B$7,698$12,42611,815
Product Demo$4,032$6,5096,189
Hashtag Test$1,833$2,9582,813

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸SMSLowcredited $36,860→supported $9,224

Evidence supports $9,224 of the $36,860 SMS claims — about 25%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $5,498 – $12,951 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 75%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 25%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 70% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit

Sources that checked this channel: GA4 (independent site analytics).

▸Google Search (brand)Moderatecredited $207,580→supported $7,805

Evidence supports $7,805 of the $207,580 Google Search (brand) claims — about 4%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $5,815 – $9,795 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 96%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 4%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
    • Platform revenue and GA4-reported revenue agree within tolerance — corroborated across instruments
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel — Brand search harvests existing demand (product of other channels); structurally low incrementality
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Sits in the final touch of 92% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • your store's own order attribution — Only 18% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 3
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
Brand - Exact$18,059$149,45865,650
Brand - Phrase$5,267$43,59219,148
Brand + Category$1,756$14,5316,383

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

▸Meta (retargeting)Moderatecredited $182,360→supported $3,647

Evidence supports $3,647 of the $182,360 Meta (retargeting) claims — about 2%. It mostly harvested demand that already existed.

Range: $2,717 – $4,577 (an estimate, not a measurement)
Understand how we arrived here
What this was weighed against
  • 98%it harvested demand that was already coming
  • 2%the channel created or captured demand

The evidence below is what moved the weight off “the channel created or captured demand”.

✓ Points to real lift
  • GA4 (independent site analytics) — Platform clicks reconcile ~1:1 with GA4 sessions — click data corroborated by an independent instrument
✗ Points to harvested demand
  • the ad platform's own pixel
    • 55% of credited conversions were view-through — view exposure is weakly incremental
    • 51% of credited revenue is view-through — view revenue is weakly incremental; discount vs the click-based portion
  • GA4 (independent site analytics)
    • Platform claims materially more revenue than GA4 attributes to it — over-attribution flagged by an independent instrument
    • Sits in the final touch of 89% of paths on a capture-role channel — last-click flatters it; prime suspect for non-incremental credit
  • spend-to-revenue timing — Raw correlation with revenue largely disappears once other channels + promo/seasonality are controlled for — likely confounded; caps confidence
  • your store's own order attribution
    • Platform claims 182,360 but the store's own order attribution credits 87,533 — the claim is not corroborated by the books' channel split
    • Only 14% of the orders the store attributes to this channel are new customers — it is re-touching an existing base, not acquiring

Sources that checked this channel: the ad platform's own pixel, GA4 (independent site analytics), spend-to-revenue timing, your store's own order attribution.

Campaigns in this channel 4
CampaignSpendCreditedClicks
RT - 30d ATC$18,194$83,88631,680
RT - Site Visitors 14d$12,261$56,53221,350
RT - Email Openers$5,933$27,35410,330
RT - Catalogue DPA$3,164$14,5895,510

The platform's own figures. The verdict above covers the channel as a whole.

What to do about it
Spending guardrails: partly unverified

Your data does not yet show CAC payback, Contribution margin, Platform ROAS, so nothing below has been checked against them. Read every recommendation as conditional on those holding.

Email (Klaviyo)Test it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
AffiliateTest it

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
DirectTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
TikTokTest it

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Brand SearchTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — RetargetingTest it

Evidence says this harvested demand that already existed.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Meta — ProspectingLean in

Evidence says this created new demand.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Google — Non-brand SearchLean in

Evidence says this captured demand it helped shape.

Size: halfNeeds: Low confidence ✓Stop if MER < breakeven for 10 trailing days
Organic SearchHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Google — Performance Max / ShoppingHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
SMSHold

Nothing in the data argues against this.

Size: quarterNeeds: Low confidence ✓
Two things would sharpen next month
  • a post-purchase survey, so every order carries where the buyer says it came from
  • one holdout or geo test, the only evidence that lifts a read above Moderate